Question remains how many activists will need to die in “peaceful protests” so that the socislist candidates can opine on how its the people that giv them the strength to get out of bed and carryon the vision of socialism for all
CADEM managed to increase its sample size to over 1,000, and Kast has a lead of 23-20 to Boric.
Kast gets more popular with every CADEM survey.
Boric still looks slight favourite to me in a R2, but with less confidence than before.
Looking at the surveys and thinking about the margin for error and the possibility for comebacks, I think the odds for becoming President are something like:
Boric 40%
Kast 30%
Provoste 15%
Sichel 10%
Parisi 5%
MEO 5%
Artes 1%
Ok that adds to 106% so take 1% off all of them except Artes…
I remember I said on these forums in November 2019 and repeatedly since then that Chile had shifted to the left, and, in spite of many people denying it, I think I was proven right by the results in the constitution election and the mayor/governor elections as well.
However, it looks to me like that shift is now ending. The appetite for voting left wing and independents has probably reached its maximum. The cries for social justice are not as strong as before, and immigration and security are getting more air time in the media. The big spending programs of the left now face a question of their suitability in the current economic environment. This is consistent with what I see on social media and talking to people in person.
Also, the very idea of the shift to the left is up against a more serious test in that people can more casually vote left for mayors and governer´s and a popular constitution but President plus senators plus deputies (diputados) - that cannot be as much of a protest vote, you have got to think a bit more carefully.
However the question is whether Boric can just about ride the last part of that lefty wave before it breaks. It´s clear that if the election had been held in 2020 or a few months back he would have probably won, along with a left leaning congress. The question is whether this all still holds.
I think it probably does, actually. I still think we get a left leaning President plus a still left leaning chamber of deputies and senate. And then after that the shift to the left ends. But it looks pretty close, so we will see.
Very possible
I just want to see Kast win so we can get our rights back ( aka abolish the mandates) which he says he is going to do
Call me a 1 issue voter. Its ok 
Strange how the supposed far right freak has the most economic (PYME focussed) and medical freedom policies for the common people of all the others.
Here are the results from my own survey at a social gathering on the weekend (not including my own preference)
Boric 1
Provoste (TBC) 1
Kast 1
Sichel 0
Parisi (TBC) 1
Artes 0
MEO 1
Bahahahahhaha…so im reading an article about Kast in an english language chile paper which is really a purely leftist rag.
Not exaggerating that as i read it it was like the author was in a frenzy trying to type the words kast and nazi and hitler in same sentence and as a result misspelling words. Nothing but baseless non-cited allegations that try to smear multiple generations of this family.
No time for spellcheck when Chile hangs in the balance for the socialist. Ffs
Ahhhh! Oh lenin save us from Kast!!
China, our communist brothers, please invade chile to save it!
Remember, if you can vote, you can also donate a luka or two to one of the candidates or to their party. The PC and PS are the richest political parties by far and obscenely so vs. the others.
Time indeed flies, less than 21 days to go…
This poll set to close the hour the polls open on November 21. It appears you can change your choice at will.
FWIW
Criteria poll
Boric and Kast both get 25% in first choice preferences. If the polls are even remotely accurate, a Boric-Kast R2 looks quite likely.
An interesting question on page 23 where people were asked to rate candidates on a scale of 1 (left) to 5 (right).
Artes got 1.41, Boric 1.59, Provoste 2.3, MEO 2.4, Parisi 3.5, Sichel 4.2, Kast 4.8.
Yesterday, I supposedly filled out a Criteria online poll. Not exactly sure how they got my email address.
Here´s another survey, and it says a 5000 sample size, that is higher than the CADEM surveys at 1000
It has 36% Kast to 30% in R1.
And even 49% Kast to 41% Boric in R2!
That is the most positive result yet for Kast, although it contradicts others
I don´t see a link to the original study to check it out
Updating my odds to be President. It now looks to me like (a quick guess based on average of all the studies considering this one a bit more than others since it was more recent and it with a higher sample size)
Boric 40%
Kast 40%
Provoste <10%
Sichel <10%
Parisi <5%
MEO <5%
Artes 1%
This could be very close. It could literally come down to which of them makes a gaffe in the last TV debate, or is caught on camera saying something rude, or has a scandal about them (false or true) 1-2 days before the second round election in the press.
Or current events:
If hundreds of immigrants happen to storm through the border and cause chaos on the day before the election, or there is a major terrorist attack, maybe Kast wins.
Not sure what the equivalent is for Boric. Maybe if a major fire the week before the election gets people talking about climate change, or a Mapuche leader is killed by police in suspicious circumstances.
If not the event itself, the way the candidates react to it.
If the vote ends up being 52-48 or 51-49, anything like that could tip a few undecided voters and effectively decide the result.
Yet another survey
Kast is doing a bit better with each survey. He is ahead in both first and second round scenarios here
In Boric’s case, all he has to do is keep woffling on in public. His grasp of economics, as demonstrated in various interviews, is abysmal.
Pretty convenient, that illness of his. Its been unkindly described locally as a Tongo. - or as an exposure limitation exercise, if you prefer.
Wow, after the 80% + vote in Arauco for law and order, I wonder if the polls have greatly underestimated a certain candidate from dark horse to leader of the pack. May be a landslide in the making that will again make the pollsters look foolish.
My husband and I watch him too. His comments about the “convencionales” always give me a laugh. Have you noticed that many of his sponsors are related to getting your money out of Chile?
Yeah, Or buying silver and gold. Or getting yourself out of Chile. His comments on the rest of the world sometimes come from a peculiarly Chilean perspective. But on local topics, I find him to be pretty sensible and down to earth.
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I agree, some of his politics on the world are a bit insulated. As for his domestic policies, I actually find them to be reasonable.
In the U.S Andrew Yang was my candidate of choice. He had, in most humble opinion, sensible policies. Too bad the Democrats went another direction. oh well!
My family in Chile is just tired of the constant protesting and destroying everything.
MEO just said that he knows progressives that will be voting for Kast.
The anti-far left folks are playing up the past sexual harassment accusation against Boric when he headed the student movement org which has been wiped from Twitter and which a prominent feminist hypocritically is also publicly trying to crush.
Next week’s debate will probably be the kill shot that may mean a landslide.
Kast is insisting on no tech aids: phone, earphone, special glasses, other communication devices, calculators, etc. be allowed.
B will need some serious meds to get through that ordeal.