I suggest we have this thread to discuss the events of election day, the results of today´s election, and the outlook for the country as a result.
Feel free to talk about senators, deputies and CORE (the other elections today) as well as the Presidential election.
If the Presidential election goes to the anticipated second round, we could also continue using this thread for that, if people want to.
Interesting results coming out of New Zealand and Australia, with Boric getting about 60% of the vote in both cases.
However, Chileans abroad often lean left, and don´t represent the country.
That being said, it´s noteworthy that Boric´s share is about double what Beatriz Sanchez got in both countries in 2017. Boric´s share of the vote in NZ and Oz was about the same as the combined Guillier+Sanchez 2017 vote.
Provoste only got 5.5% of the vote in New Zealand and 9% in Australia. These are concerning numbers for her.
I do question the release of these results so early. They could influence how people vote. I think it would be more appropriate to not release any results until 6pm in Chile when votes close.
Copy and paste:
Gabriel Boric obtuvo en Nueva Zelandia 417 votos , seguido con un amplio margen por Franco Parisi (85 votos) y José Antonio Kast (74), Sebastián Sichel (44), Marco Enríquez-Ominami (36), Yasna Provoste (23) y Eduardo Artés (9).
En tanto, en Australia Boric resultó con 1.268 votos en el conteo , seguido de Kast con 351, Sichel (236), Provoste (114), Parisi (93), Enríquez-Ominami (72) y Artés (40).
Boric doing well in Europe with 47% of the vote in Italy, 73% in France, 67% in Germany.
However not too much that can be concluded from that. Beatriz Sanchez came first in Germany and France in 2017, with eventual winner Sebastian Piñera trailing behind in 3rd place.
Results are bad for Provoste and MEO. Similar to Australia and New Zealand story.
The total left wing vote is reasonably stable vs 2017, but it´s not being spread out amongst the candidates, Boric is getting nearly all of it.
Count watchers are now gathering at the school I voted at waiting for the 6 pm chime. My grandson was able to spot me when I went over there to vote with his toy binocular.
Just heard the shouter and closing of my mesa.
So looks like Kast-Boric R2 is 99% sure.
The last CADEM survey looks to have been extremely accurate if these results don´t change much. Kast a few % down, Sichel 2% up in line with last TV debate performance. Everyone else very, very close.
In the last CADEM survey, Kast had a 6 point lead over Boric in the first round, with a 4 point lead in a potential second round. If that 2 point loss of lead for Kast in round 2 is correct, then Kast arguably needs >2% lead in R1 to be favourite for R2. He currently has 3%-4% lead after 58% of tables counted.
So, it has started. The dirtiest 4 weeks are coming.
“Ese espíritu totalitario, fascista, es lo que representa la candidatura de José Antonio Kast. No podemos permitir el fascismo”, arremetió la senadora Yasna
~Provoste
“amenaza sobre la democracia y para la vida de todos los chilenos“.
~Elizalde
Sources:
Wow, look at the Presidential vote by region. In all previous elections, there wasn´t much difference. WOW.
In RM and Valpo and Conquimbo and Magellanes, Boric is doing great.
Boric has been crushed in Araucania - 42% Kast- 16% Boric. That is surely a vote for security and a hard line against crime. It´s a wake up call for not just Boric but everyone on the political left.
Boric has also been crushed in regions 1, 2 and 3, in third place well behind not just Kast but Parisi. Again, this is another wake up call to not just Boric but everyone on the political left on immigration.
The classic mistake of the left worldwide on crime and immigration.
Boric needs to go on TV now and announce that he understands that the people of Araucania and the north of Chile have voted down his program and that therefore, to be respect democracy and transfer of power to these regions, he will travel to these two regions immediately in the next week to meet people, and understand what changes are needed to his program. He then announces after that a hard line on crime and immigration. Had he done this in the beginning, he would have been President almost certainly. The numbers are clear. Whether or not it is too late, whether they will believe him now, that is the question.
EDIT: I had a look at the results again and I realized my comment above is a little too hasty. Yes, Kast got a high percentage of the vote in the top two regions, but the absolute numbers of people voting there are very small, so he only has a 20,000 lead there.
In Araucania Kast leads by 100,000 votes, more than half his entire lead.
Studying the results in more detail it´s more accurate to say that Boric won in RM, Kast won in regions. Boric only won Valpo, Coquimbo, RM and Magallenes. I think all other regions have Kast ahead of Boric, although Parisi is actually first in Antogasta.
Boric is catching up, Lead of Kast is now down to 2.6% and may end up at about 2%. I suspect this is because Boric is doing better in RM, where they have been slower to finish counting.
What are people’s thoughts on Parisi doing so well? I saw a few interviews with him and he is intelligent. However, the sleaze factor with him is high. Did people decide to ignore that? Or, was it part of the wider rejection of the traditional parties that was evident yesterday?
Sichel must be very depressed right now. He spent so much money and ended up behind a candidate that won’t even set foot in the country!
13% suggests dissatisfaction with the current political elite,combined with rejection of far left vs far right choice of Boric vs Kast.
The fact that he left the country to avoid paying child support and didn’t bother to campaign in Chile and wasn’t even present in TV debates must have surely damaged his vote. Without these things, he might have had a much higher vote.
Maybe if his party brings in a different leader and works steadily to build up their case they can actually do better next time.
On the other hand, maybe the next few years will show them to be inexperienced, or bring to light scandals that we don’t yet know about. They will now face more scrutiny.
It´s very curious to see everyone on TV and radio talking about what a surprise Parisi´s score was. CADEM predicted it to within 1% and other surveys weren´t too far off either.
CADEM, which predicted the results of the first round extremely accurately for every single candidate, currently has Boric and Kast both at 39% and 22% for other responses (don´t know, didn´t respond, didn´t vote). Based on opinions given Nov 16-19.
Some reports are that Parisi is doing a digital consultation of his followers to see who he should support.
Hi everyone. If anyone is finding any of this useful, please reply and let me know.
I am trying to post info that seems relevant to you all but I am conscious of the fact that I am posting a lot of long posts, so, depending on what people reply, I may try to post less in the coming days so we can hear more of a balance of others viewpoints.
I think that any journalist who wants to understand the rise of Kast needs to get a car, and take a road trip from Santiago to Puerto Montt (with their first stop to talk to people coming at about 2 hours south). Because if you look here
https://www.servelelecciones.cl/
you will see that this is Kast country. he won Maule, Ñuble, Bio Bio, Araucania, Los Rios y Los Lagos by margins of 10 points or more! If he becomes President, it will be because of people that live in these regions.
I’m also curious whether he is winning based on the rural vote. If you look at the results for the comunas of Talca, Chillan, Concepion, Temuco you will see that Kast does win all those southern cities as well, but by lower margins than the whole region (in many cases he won cities by 5 points less than he won the whole region). So likely he does have particular strong support in southern rural areas, but he also owns the south in general.
Valdivia is the only southern city I saw that voted slightly more for Boric, and I checked most major cities in the south.
Los Lagos is the only region where Kast does equally well in cities as for the whole region. Both Puerto Montt and Osorno saw him get virtually identical scores to that region as a whole.
It would be interesting to see a breakdown on Boric-Kast voters by salary earned, I suspect it would be fairly even, but who knows.
To add: Senate and Diputados not changed much - Senate is still evenly balanced between left and right, while lower chamber still leans left.
Left (that means Apruebo Dignidad and Nuevo Pacto Social and Partido Humanista and Partido Ecologista) have 79 of lower chamber, while right (Chile Podemos Mas and Frente Social Cristiano) have 68.
I’m saying Partido de la Gente is centre, so excluded from these counts, but if you include them as right that is more like 79-74.
Someone once said politics is the theatre of the elite. That said, I agree that a demographic analysis of voters as well as a map showing regional voting trends would be helpful. The extreme left vs extreme right is a worldwide political trend. People see their world crumbling, their reality shattered and they want extreme solutions.
I enjoy your posts Mendoza, even if I don’t respond to every one.
fascinating, thank you gringalais 
Does anyone else get a lot of comments when going to vote? In La Reina the poll workers always seemed to take more time to explain things to me or would ask me where I was from.
In Buin, it was another story. Being blonde with a German/gringa face and a long German last name got me into a whole conversation with the poll workers. That ended up being longer than the actual voting process! I’m like a rock star!
I would expect someone like yo would get more than normal attention but the drafted table volunteers seem to be pretty much indifferent. The second to the last vote I was asked about my name, the last two times nothing with last Sunday seeming like I was just another native Chilean voter.
So that was a good week for Boric. A few things seemed to go his way. I think Izkia Siches joining his campaign, his slight pivot to the centre (although it looks like it was a rhetoric shift rather than policy change) and his comment that Jadue would stay as Alcalde rather than be part of the government. It also helped him that that member of Kast´s party made dumb comments questioning women´s right to vote.
(On the other hand Jadue criticising Partido de la Gente voters was a dumb move, reminiscent of Hillary Clinton´s deplorables comment.)
So Boric goes into the favourite position for the first time in a while.
According to Pulse Cuidadano, which correctly predicted the slight lead of Kast in the first round voting, Boric now leads by as much as 40%-25% while CADEM, which predicted the first round very accurately, today has Boric´s lead at 39%-33%.
The CADEM survey shows no increase in Boric´s support, but instead some of Kast´s R1 voters might not vote again for him in R2.
If these surveys are truly representative, then it is interesting how much people´s opinions can change based on very little, and it speaks to how little people are attached to certain parties or certain candidates in Chile. Very different to the US, where Donald Trump had 20 women accusing him of sex crimes and inappropriate behaviour, and lost almost no support.
The CADEM study is worth a flick through:
Boric and Kast are tied amongst the rich (“alto” segment) while Boric is winning the poor ("bajo) but with many undecided in this segment. (Page 5.)
I heard someone make a good point today. The diputados and senator´s elections did not take congress any further to the left. The right did OK and the balance after this month´s elections is similar to before.
That means it is no longer as necessary to vote Kast in order to block far left stuff. Anything that has to go through the senate will require support from people in the centre and/or independents.
A Boric Presidency likely means only a steady, shift to the left since he won´t have the power to do extremely lefty stuff even if he wants to (unless the new constitution is approved and changes things).
The far left cannot get anything done that must go through the senate.
Only stuff that can be done without the senate.