- Boric
- Kast
- Sichel
- Provoste
- Parisi
- MEO
- Artés
0 voters
Yikes, this is a tough one.
Ben Davis 
Bend Over depending…
The Alternative for Germany was in the news recently for seeing the CV19 restrictions as a gross violation of personal liberty…
L u l z
Not sure… any ideas eeuu?
As a born and raised USA person, I never knew what it was like having a real, revolutionary, true believing, Marxist Communist Party with money, power and internal and external support. Perhaps as a kid during the 70’s, I missed out on paying attention to some of the US radical groups and their bombings and other terror activities but all in all, the revolutionary left never posed a threat to the social or political order there.
I came to Chile believing most of the international left narrative about the goodness of the Chilean left and their hero Allende and how absolutely evil the other side was. Of course, I have learned a lot since then after being here 20 years.
It was a real civil war with extremes on both sides and if I recall from El P’s writings, a lot of the initial violence may have been people settling personal scores under the cover of chaos rather than over politics and ideology though no doubt those were very highly revved up due to Allende, confiscations, violence, inflation, shortages, etc.
My first real introduction to the Chile far left was an all-night party with the relatives and their friends of my first landlord here in Chille (a socialist exiled during Pino). For the first time, I realized how extreme these commies were. They are nothing like the left in the Canada or the USA. They live in the past and still believe in violent revolution and I now see and understand how ruthless, underhanded and uncompromising they can be in reaching their objectives. But back to the story, while nursing the aftereffects of that all-night party at the breakfast table, everyone around me stood up to heartily sing the commie anthem at max voice. An eye-opening and beginning crack in the mainstream narrative and a journey where I found that the pro-Pino folks do have valid viewpoints and that the left is certainly not the sole owner of the “truth”.
Boric-Provoste-MEO-Artés will all promote the same agenda which is the Chilean Communist Party agenda. The new constitution process is part of that plan. If any of them are elected, the rules will be changed to institute a multi-decade regime that can only be defeated by a coup or another revolution.
Chile in the past months has already lost its investment grade status. The CLP is in free fall.
DYODD.
2 Likes
I’d have to agree with you on this. The Chilean commie is a whole different beast. They think of “revolution” as getting rid of anything that represents capitalism.
My best friend is Russian and at some point, I posed the question “What did the Soviets think of ‘El Che’ and the Latin American communists in general” which in turn he asked his grandpa, and he said that these revolutionaries were seen as “savages” because of how retrograde and outdated their thoughts were in general.
For outsides is hard to comprehend how radical the radical left is in Latin America as a whole. My 2cents
CADEM survey
The headline news is the continued rise of Kast, and fall of Sichel
Si las elecciones presidenciales fueran el próximo domingo, ¿Por cuál de los siguientes candidatos votaría usted?
Boric 21%
Kast 18%
Provoste 13%
Sichel 10%
Lots of other interesting stuff in there, worth a flick through
For other survey results see here, Opinion polling for the 2021 Chilean presidential election - Wikipedia
Check TVN, Mega and Canal 13 for tonight’s Presidential debate at 10.35pm or view on Youtube tomorrow.
Full version of the debate.
Boric would be easily dominated by the PC. Sichel is Piñera MK3 and would inherit all this government’s weaknesses and troubles. Provoste is an incompetent Bachelet clone, without her mentor’s slyness.
There is already talk of the next presidential term being an interim one, while the fait accompli production of a new Constitution and Approval vote paves the path towards Chilezuela. The only candidate that clearly opposes this golpe blanco is JAK.
Today I watched Fernando Villegas on YouTube. I find him to be pretty good, on Chilean matters anyway. He analysed a piece, or rather a hatchet job that ChileVision recently did on Sichel for campaign contributions - in 2009! The conclusion Villegas drew is that the Communist Party would prefer to see Kast Vs Boric in the second round vote, and are starting a campaign to discredit Sichel.
The reason? Kast has already been thoroughly smeared as an extreme right-wing fascist, with a Nazi father to boot, and hence less attractive to uninformed middle voters who normally would go for Sichel, If Sichel can be discredited, in the same way that Kast has been, those middle’middles would tend to drift to the Boric camp instead.
Sounds like a plausible scenario to me, especially given the local tendency to believe the dirt, even if its later turns out to be lies. We may see a red flag over the Moneda yet.
Ok…so i know this guy. A chilean who i have worked with in the past. This person used to work at Intendencia in the south and is a lawyer. Young guy with a young family (30’s)
He changed his profile pic on a popular messenger service today. This is what it says:
It was in spanish but i will put it in English
First a chilean flag and then this text:
Kast is not the extreme right.
Kast is extremely necessary
Well let me tell you…this guy i know is def a normal chilean. Maybe the smear job on Kast has not been as effective as we in the peanut galley have taken for granted?
Yeah, the last time, commie sock puppet Guillier was widely expected to win, but in fact lost decisively to Piñera which gives some hope that common sense will prevail.
Having said that, given Piñera’s truly pathetic performance, maybe it would have been better if Guillier had won. The outcome would have been similar, but without the need to employ the gross political arm-twisting disguised as the so-called estallido social.
Yes, you may well be right. Yet i feel sick saying it 
Latest CADEM survey https://cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Track-PP-405-Octubre-S3-VF.pdf
For the first time, Kast (21%) is ahead of Boric (20%) which is headline grabbing, but 1% is nothing given the accuracy level of these polls in actually predicting results, it would be better to say that they both have a similar level of support.
I would say that Boric is still the slight favourite at this point for various reasons:
- He is still ahead if you look at the average of last number of surveys, rather than today’s news (the Activa survey of a few days ago has Boric 5points ahead 21-16 (https://media.elmostrador.cl/2021/10/210626_Pulso_Ciudadano_OCTUBRE_Q1_1018_V2.pdf page 41) and according to them this lead increases if you only look at probable voters (page 53)/210626_Pulso_Ciudadano_OCTUBRE_Q1_1018_V2.pdf
2 Boric has been under scrutiny as one of the front runners for months, and has come out pretty clean. Kast will now face more scrutiny and it remains to be seen whether he will come out as clean.
- Provoste and MEO voters would not likely vote for Kast in a potential Boric-Kast round 2. The CADEM survey of today, on page 12, puts Boric at 43%-35% in a potential round 2 but that is noticeably closer than the 50%-27% margin of last month’s survey from CADEM. Activa also has Boric at 40-28 in a round 2 and and 53-30 when they look at probable voters
That being said, I am certainly less dismissive of Kast’s chances at this point than I was in the past. His rise is undeniable at this point. I suspect however we are reaching the limit however of the number of candidates being prepared to vote far right but we will see. Activa (page 46) also asks the questions,who would you NEVER vote for. In this questions, Kast gets 38%, Boric gets 19%.
Sichel all the way down to 7% in CADEM survey and 7.5% in Activa survey.
Has run a bad campaign so far. The way he dealt with the AFP/pension question was badly handled, his father’s interview that Sichel’s telling of his childhood wasn’t accurate didn’t help, and then there has been reports of old campaign funding which seem to be accurate reports given that Sichel hasn’t denied them outright but said he didn’t handle the funding. Plus he has few real policies of substance.
Sichel clearly in trouble at this point, not sure what his moves are.
The latest CADEM poll shows Kast in the lead, Boric in the number two slot, and Sichel dropping to fourth place. It may be that although Sichel has been amply discredited, the result didn’t go the way the Commies hoped. Rather than driving the voters towards Boric, it looks as if they may be moving in the opposite direction - towards Kast! Still, these opinion polls can hardly be taken seriously.
We may see a muted series of “manifestations” today, as more violence and destruction only gives Kast ammunition to attack Boric with, and a lot of, if not most Chileans, are thoroughly fed up with this eternal bs circus.
And the Commies know this. In the runup to the 1970 elections, affiliated extremist groups were told to dial back the violence immediately prior to the elections in order to tranquillize the voters.
In the meantime, our little business, which had recently showed timid signs of recovery, has once again dropped to zero in anticipation of the elections.