No light at the end of the tunnel

As the December date for voting on the latest attempt at a new constitution draws closer, its worth speculating on what happens after the votes are counted.

The result is likely to be an even more decided rechazo vote, as most Chileans are heartily sick of the whole business, (and with the Boric government).

The commies aren’t happy with this latest attempt either as the boundaries that were put in place this time round severely limit their chances of converting Chile into another Cuba or Chilezuela.

However, it would be a mistake to assume that the “Pinochet” constitution will remain in force. Instead, the issue could be decided some time next year by parliament, and since the pueblo refuses to go along with the politicians, there won’t be any more referendums to decide on the outcome. Some type of constitution will be unilaterally imposed on the country by a body that has proved to be not particularly concerned for the good of the country.

Colombia faced a similar situation in 2016 when the government chose to ignore a rechazo vote on amnesty for the FARC. The odds are, imho, that something similar will happen here.

The proposed text of the latest effort can be found here.

Unlike the last effort, there has been little public analysis of its content so far, I would guess out of sheer indifference. No doubt the proposed amendments will provoke the usual controversies. The cutoff date for adopting these is the 4th October, with the presentation of the definitive text in early November, followed by the vote on December 17.

A skim of the following only confirms my opinion that Chilean politicians have “lost the plot”. Que se vayan todos.

And an interesting interview in English from El País.

Jaime Bellolio, former Chilean minister: ‘The Republican voters never wanted the constitutional process in the first place’

The leader of the Independent Democratic Union, a major conservative political party in Chile, analyzes the relationship between his bloc, the traditional right and the far-right Republican Party led by José Antonio Kast

There has been some English language discussion surrounding the June 2023 draft proposal, with the understanding that this is not a final draft and substantial changes could take place. .

News item from Colombia, Sept 2023, on the draft constitution (rough translation):

“New draft constitution in Chile lacks support of the population”

"Although more than half of Chileans agree that a new constitution should be drafted, 59% do not agree with the draft currently presented.

"As members of Chile’s Constitutional Council vote on the final articles and amendments to a new draft charter, it looks increasingly like a waste of time. "


“A 50-member council dominated by the right is voting on amendments to a draft presented by a council of experts earlier this year. Among some of the more controversial articles are those that could lead to a ban on abortion rights, the expulsion of illegal immigrants “as soon as possible” and an end to property taxes on people’s primary residence.”

Read the rest of it here, in the vernacular:

And Kast is accusing the government of cooking up a “Plan B” to continue the reform process in Congress if this latest effort is rejected yet again by the voters.

Al parecer, el Gobierno de Gabriel Boric, a través de sus parlamentarios, ya decidió ingresar el anteproyecto de los expertos como reforma constitucional al Congreso.

Strong denials from Tohá…

Vote Apruebo and shut the wea down.

Already in SPECIFIC text:

From the right to choose your health care and education of niños PRIVATE or public.

No property tax on your primary home property.

The mandatory contributed pension fund for workers is theirs and cannot be taken by government.

Illegals must be removed ASAP.

The government must protect the citizens from crime and terrorism.

The loss of citizen rights if involved in terrorism, drugs, human trafficking.

Age limits and other criteria to hold government office.

The loss of the right for future public office if involved in misdeeds.

Reducing the size of Congress.

Shit, give me a good reason why this with the mandatory 12 bordes by the “experts” should not be approved.

And if there is a grave problem, then the idiot Executive or Congress can correct it in the future,

Uh this entire cooked up “do over” is the sus Plan B.
This second attempt was and is legally tenuous at best.
It makes a mockery of the process and it is entirely absurd when just pushed by a sour grapes administation that didnt like what happened last time

They had a shot and missed.
It was time to move on after the last rechazo on principle

One thing to think about here is that if this constitution is approved it’s extremely unlikely that there will be a new one any time soon. Maybe in 30 or 100 years.

Whereas if this is rejected I can’t see the youth of today sticking with the existing constitution forever. I think if this constitution is rejected I think there might be another one being written - not right away, but maybe in 5 years or 20 years.

Yes all fair points. Pragmatism over principle and it does make quite a compelling case in this unique situation we find ourselves in :face_with_spiral_eyes:

Think what you will, es lo que hay.
But if its rejected - again - there will be a Plan, call it Plan C if you want.

And that will be cooked-up in Congress, where the government has more of a chance of railroading its commie agenda through than they have with the Consejo Constitutional. And there won’t be any more voting on the outcome. I don’t believe for a moment that these Extreme Lefties will tamely give up. La lucha continuará.

I wonder how many of the responders to this survey are familiar with the proposals in this latest attempt, very few, I bet. Even so, 31% of them want to reject it, and start a third constitutional reform process.

Asimismo, un 43% declara que no está nada satisfecho con la labor del actual Consejo, 31% dice estar poco satisfecho, 18% bastante satisfecho y 8% muy satisfecho.

En cuanto a su desenlace, 42% prefiere que se rechace el texto y no haya otro proceso, 31% que se rechace y comience otro proceso, y 27% opta por que se apruebe el texto.

Winston Churchill said:

No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…

But I’m beginning to have my doubts…

Minor changes in polls on voting probabilities:

6 October CADEM: 53 percent saying they would vote against the proposed new constitution.
28 percent in favor.