Argentina presidential elections

Here’s Maximo on this topic with his instinctive grasp of Realpolitik:

While acknowledging the desperate condition of Argentina, he feels that Milei potentially represents more of a threat to Chile than either of the other principal candidates, under whom the country would continue its self-inflicted decline.

Argentina, estimados amigos y amigotes, no es nuestro amigo, es nuestro enemigo, le guste a quien le guste y lo acepte quien lo acepte, y seguirá siendo así para siempre. Recuerden, la política internacional es un asunto de intereses nacionales, y un vecino belicoso es siempre un problema que debemos enfrentar preparándonos para la guerra si es que pretendemos mantener la paz. Mientras menos poder tenga el vecino, es mejor para nosotros. Nada mas nos debe importar.

A foul-mouthed, far-right populist who has been described as a cross between Boris Johnson and the killer doll Chucky is in pole position to become president of South America’s second-largest economy as Argentina chooses its next leader on Sunday against a backdrop of anti-establishment fury and economic disarray.

Yet another hit piece from the Guardian, complete with the most unflattering photo they could find of him, trying to make him out to be some kind of psychotic Joker-esque figure, the globalist Left are terrified of this guy.

Yes, The Guardian (Pravda Britanica) reminded us of its Stalinist underpinnings with that Milei piece. If I were teaching journalism it would be the subject of a series of lectures on Orwellian media methods and trends. Several of the leftist media sites are calling Milei “Argentina’s Trump.” Apparently a platform that calls for higher levels of economic liberty and reduced featherbedding is “ultra-right.”

The turnout in Argentina has been exceptional. At the moment no one in the country can legally publish “encuestas a boca de urna” (exit polls results). At least until three hours after polls close.

Likely a runoff, a segunda vuelta. Assuming Milei isn’t assassinated. This is Argentina, after all. I see serious internal conflict and blood in the streets if Milei is elected. He doesn’t have the support he needs in the legislature to push through his agenda.

Milei’s recent scatological pronouncements on the argie peso helped to drive the street value (“blue dollar”) of the ARS to even less than the Chilean peso. That was frankly amazing, but telling.

ARS blue dollar 22 Oct: between 980 and 1010 ARS to the dollar
CLP: about 943 CLP to the dollar

Even if Milei gets the highest percentage of votes in the first round today, it likely won’t be enough to win according to the election rules: A candidate has to get at least 45 percent of the vote, or 40 percent plus a lead of ten points over the number two.

And a second round would likely mean that the more traditional voters of whoever comes out losing, as number three today, will trend away from the more radical Milei. Hard to predict this one, but it’s splendid entertainment.

We live in interesting times.

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Seems like it is always a runoff in any south american election of recent memory.

Although sometimes it’s just the annual coup.

But yesterday Argentina voted for continuing failure, with peronista Massa getting the majority of votes. Though there will be a segunda vuelta.


Once again quoting Maximo, who opines that in a country where so many live off the state, Milei’s jump into the unknown is seen as a risk and the majority of voters will prefer the Peronist pájaro en la mano.

En un país con tanta gente viviendo de lo ajeno, con tanto pensionado, con tanto estudiante que no paga la universidad, con tanto pobre, con tanto funcionario público, con tantos millones que viven de la mentira, de las vueltas de la vida, de la movida estratégica, del paro y la toma; y con tanto miedo a perder los beneficios que acostumbran a recibir, no es fácil proponer una aventura a largo plazo si las necesidades urgentes deben ser solucionadas ayer, y el pájaro en la mano vale más que cien volando.

Bullrich threw her support behind Milei. I wasn’t anticipating that.

He still has a shot. Argentina may be able to muster enough fedup voters to finally try something anything different…

I’m wondering how the gas shortages could impact the outcome. Bullrich has made some, shall we say, interesting comments on the subject

Argentina is pretty much permanently hopeless. As the now-famous saying goes,

" Argentina tiene Papa pero no tiene cura. "

The peronistas have fallen!

Javier M has won against all odds!

Yup, and US and other English language media are starting off by insulting Milei as predicted

A quote from one of the Javier M supporters

“I’ve been waiting for this all my life: no more Peronists, no more thieving, no more lies,” said Leonardo Estarone, a 57-year-old physiotherapist who was banging a drum in the street. “My children will get to live in a free country.”

Leonardo…the whole world has been waiting for this!

If anyone thinks that Milei can really turn Argentina around then therapy and a change of medication are in order. Milei might make a dent, but the inertia behind Argentina’s dominant cultural preference for permanent failure is profound and powerful. His attempts at reform will be tied up down in the legislature and tied up in the courts. We can only wish him luck and some months before he gets the Nisman treatment

It is likely that Javier is fully expecting a desperate criminal attack against him so hopefully that will not happen or at least be unsuccessful

Meanwhile Argentina apparently will not be joining the BRICS on Jan 1 as JM wont allow it

40 years of kleptocracy, more like…

Phrases from that Guardian article, which attempts to link Milei with the Argentinian military dictatorship of the 80’s, a tactic we have often seen used here as well :

“extreme libertarians”"
“wild-haired economist”
“Nazi-style killers”
“snake-oil salesman”
“violent, totalitarian chaos”

I’m far from a Milei fan, but certain news outlets ignore or gloss over the corruption and mismanagement of the Peronists/Kirchnerists that has gone on for years. In different jobs I have dealt with Argentina for a long while, so I’ve seen it from a front row seat. I mean, how was an Economy Minister who oversaw the economy being run even more into the ground supposed to be a viable candidate?

I don’t see most Argentinians who voted for Milei as super libertarians or anything. It’s much more a feeling of why not try anything but the status quo, given the current situation. If the economy weren’t a dumpster fire, he wouldn’t have been seen as a viable option for many.

Yes, a vote of desperation. Given the entrenched powers of the Cámpora, the Unions and the bureaucracy, he faces an uphill battle for sure.

Regarding JM being seen as a viable option outside of a dumpsterfire.

Dont really see that there any alternative viable options just waiting to get a shot to fix stuff. Instead as it was pointed out the loser economy minister was apparently the “viable option” or the “adult in the room” to contrast against JM. But what does that word really mean in that context? Electable? Good? Helpful? Honest?

Are there ANY world leaders of any countries that any of us would like to actually see as a world leader because they wont be like the limp wristed, if not corrupt, if not warmongers, if not thieves, hirlings that typically end up at the head of countries?

I cant think of a single one

True. It’s pretty grim out there!