Very concerned about the Parisi vote because it sets him all well for the next election in a few years. The guy is basically a mix of populism, centre and right. Some of his party’s position are more left than right. A more centrist candidate would be refreshing but not him.He is dangerous I think, angry, unpredictable, emotional, obviously not a good person, just look at the stories about him online or just trust your instincts when he talks.
This isn’t the first time pollsters undercalled Parisi’s vote. The same thing happened at the last election. Again, there may be a systematic error that they failed to correct. Perhaps they didn’t sample enough in the north where he gets his votes, maybe the people who vote Parisi are anti-elite who also see pollsters as part of the elite so refuse to participate, maybe the voters of Parisi are more or less educated and the sample size didn’t represent them etc, or more likely something else entirely
I don’t take the results of any election anywhere between 2020 and 2022 seriously. COVID cut the legs out from all-comers across the world, left and right.
Btw, as I understand it, vote count doesn’t work like the US elections as there is the run-off which the US doesn’t have because of its winner-take-all system and its accompanying pathologies. Invalid/blank votes are tossed out in the final count, so, in your scenario, it wouldn’t be 60 to 30, it’d be (60/90)x100=67% to 33%.
Jara’s not making up any ground at all and the margin of Kast’s lead is greater than the normal margin for error of polling, so I think Kast is at about a 90% chance at the moment.
Jara needs something drastic to happen to have any chance. Like if Kast says something unbelievably stupid or offensive, or he massively loses his cool. Or maybe if something crazy happens like a massive terrorist attack or Trump does something insane in relation to Chile. Given the huge lead what would it have to be? It would have to be something crazy, it’s so unlikely.
Also, I think we’ll see whatever the record is for number of null/blank votes being absolutely smashed.
The left has made a mistake by putting the candidate with communist against their name as the candidate for the whole left.
If I was Kast I would already be drawing up shortlists for ministers and so on.
I wonder if Jara is regretting her imagery of “La Jaraneta.” It’s just too much of a meme, La Jaraneta broke down, the wheels are falling off La Jaraneta, etc.!
I took the time to watch the Republicanos press conference with Demócratas, and it is telling that Jorge Tarud et al. are coming together with Kast. Kast recognizes that bygones are bygones and that everything they are going to do is for Chile. Boric’s government was such an unprecedented disaster that it is literally making all moderate politicians realize that they need to stop playing games and change course.
It is refreshing to see this, really. It shows that Chile is actually very different from the rest of Latin America. In spite of all of its shortcomings, Chile is a country that is superior in its system, and when things need to be done, everyone is able to come together.
This matters to me personally because my grandparents were part of the group of people that laid the foundations to modern Chile. People of modest means, like many in the 60s and 70s, they went to work every day with a small population, built the country, provided for their families, and helped their communities. Now we have people cutting in line and destroying everything they built—an ideology that gives preferential treatment not to their children, grandchildren, and descendants, but to people who have completely different values, morals, and lifestyles.
You can criticize this post, but above all, the average chileno desires order, stability, and peace. This is the crux of the issue and why many are turning to Kast.
Those are the people that the commies call fachos pobres.
But these days it seems that those essentially virtuous values, are out of fashion at all levels of Chilean society.
At the flaite end of the spectrum, easy money through drug dealing and theft seems preferable to enduring what they see as the capitalist enslavement and humiliation entailed in actually working for a living. The commies have a lot to do with this indoctrination.
And at the other extreme we have seen corruption and collusion at the highest levels; in the Judiciary, the Armed Services, the Government of course, and not forgetting Big Business.
And in the middle, amid the amorphous masses, increasing incivility and lawlessness as a result of buenista tolerance and the skewed and selfish application of derechos humanos to excuse what would be unacceptable conduct in more civilized places.
I don’t believe there was ever a Golden Age here; the bad behavior we now see daily was always there, but there was a commonly-accepted ethos that at least curbed the excesses we see today. Its too late to close Pandora’s box…unless unacceptably extreme measures are applied, and I can’t see that happening - with or without Kast.
I don’t like Kast at all and I think he has taken some VERY questionable positions in the past on gay marriage, abortion and climate change. Enough to make you question his intelligence in general. But none of that is really mentioned anymore, all of those debates have faded into the background for now.
He actually comes across as quite polite and moderate at times, except on immigration where his hard right position is actually going to win him votes possibly.
But aside from immigration, has he moderated and will genuinely rule in line with what the people want? Or is he waiting to get power and then take lots of little hard right positions that weren’t discussed in advance? Not completely clear is it…but I’m guessing more towards the latter.
I just watched a >2 hour debate but damn those debates are long so I skipped over loads of it. Jara was laughed at for repeatedly interrupting Kast and then complaining after when she was interrupted, while Kast was asked various yes no questions and said it depends or wouldn’t answer.
You may find his views unpalatable, but at least you know where he stands.
How do you feel about Jara, then? Do you think what she says now would have the slightest resemblance to how she would act as president of a commie government?
I don’t like Jara at all, my gut feeling on her is not great, and I think she is not the candidate to build bridges and is rather argumentative and tetchy in debates as if she feels so superior to Kast and Kaiser that they don’t even deserve to be in the same room as her.
Yes I think she would act as President in a reasonably centrist and moderate way, but only because she would have to due to public opinion, which I suspect she does care about, and congress. Hard to be sure though, isn’t it. Either candidate carries a risk and would have to be controlled.
I will probably vote for Jara because it’s the least bad choice, because I’m more left than right on average, and because I felt Kast more or less disqualified himself years ago with his comments on certain issues, which I think I already referred to above.
But I don’t like being forced to vote communist, right wing or throw my vote away.
I do think Jara 2025 is actually, although clearly somewhat far to the left, a bit closer to the centre than Boric 2021. Boric was talking about upending the current model of capitalism, going after Sebastian Piñera for sending the military into the streets, shutting all the coal plants in 5 years.
Whereas Jara is talking more about safety / crime and speaking against illegal immigration that anyone on the left did in 2021, of course that’s because that’s where the political winds are. Of course, if she does try to get into power and then do radical things, people will be able to oppose it saying no-one voted for this, and there’s no evidence the public support it , and it wasn’t in your program etc.
Anyway, she’s (probably) not going to win so it’s a moot point.
The problem is, of course, that like all leftist politicians who say they are going to sort out law and order, she is full of shit. They have to be. Maintaining order is a masculine endeavour. The left is feminine in nature. They do not know how to wield the monopoly on violence competently nor responsibly. Men impose order on society, not women.
We are seeing the results of the feminine in charge of law and order across the entire Western world.
