Thread to discuss any elections in Chile in 2025. Possibly keep it running until December if enough interest.
Looks like Jeannette Jara is on a par with Kast or slightly ahead in first round, however looks very hard for her to add much more votes in the second round.
If you add together Kast+Parisi+Matthei+Kaiser those voters are a big block of right wing/anti communist/populist and whichever one of them gets through (at the moment looks like Kast) ought to get the support of the others.
Kast beats Jara 49%-37% on a hypothetical round 2 in this particular CADEM survey.
That’s a quite a lot of ground to make up, especially since someone with “communist” next to their name is going to struggle to get the centrists and undecideds.
Although curiously enough, the early evidence is that the Communist candidate is sort of a communist in name only. Based on policies put out so far, there isn’t much evidence that they will be doing anything more radical than what Boric was doing…or trying to do.