Jealous! Another trip down a horribly maintained dirt road is in store for me. I try to see the humor in doing that to vote, and then dealing with the inevitable traffic jam of late model SUVs around my voting location! The contradictions of life, I guess. The last two times, my table was almost empty. I was in and out fast. My husband’s was terrible, with a huge line. Both of our tables have changed this time, so I guess we will soon know what the lines look like.
The last one from CADEM was Apruebo 38, Rechazo 46, Undecided 16.
Remember CADEM was correct to within 1-2 points on very Presidential candidate in the November election, extremely well done. So I trust CADEM until proven otherwise.
Other polls done within August:
All have Rechazo ahead - I have not seen any that have Apruebo ahead. Rechazo’s lead is between 3.8% and 16.8% depending on who you believe
The 3.8% lead for Rechazo is from Signos. The ones with the biggest sample sizes have the biggest lead for Rechazo.
When people say “pollsters were wrong” those were often polls months and months before the election or where they said one candidate would win by 5 points and the margin for error was >5…
When the margins are nearer 10 points pollsters are usually correct.
The obligatory vote does throw a spanner into the works and it could mean pollsters have a systematic error of some kind.
But overall I’d still say Rechazo has an 80% chance.
Only Rechazo can win a clear victory like 60-40. Apruebo would have to win 51-49 and even that looks tricky.
If Apruebo wins pollsters will certainly have egg all over their faces that’s for sure. it would be a severe defeat for the survey companies.
We will of course see no more polls this week. It is not allowed.
However consider looking online at CADEM’s website, on twitter etc just after polls close. I think they are still allowed to carry out polls this week, and might be allowed to publish them once voting is closed (I am not sure about this).