This article in ex-ante states that Bachelet will probably decline the presidential candidacy, leaving Carolina Tohá as the most likely leftwing coalition candidate.
Bachelet was seen as the only person who could unify the support of all the Left and Centre parties, from the Commies through to the Christian Democrats. She is also still popular with a large section of the electorate who forget that her catastrophic second administration paved the way for the current shit show that is Chile, while fondly remembering the bonos that she dished out.
But faced with Matthei’s lead in the polls, and the widespread unpopularity of the present government, (she engineered Boric and Co’s accession to power after all), it looks as if she has decided to sit this one out.
In a rough translation from that article:
Those close to her estimate that the campaign would be very exhausting with attacks on her two governments, and that this time her victory is not assured, which could end up damaging the “legacy” of her previous administrations.
By declining, she will end up like her mentor, Ricardo Lagos. Nadie lo pesca these days, but he still bobs up from time to time.
When crypto-commie Bachelet showed her true colours:
Bachelet’s turn to the left was notable. In fact, in that campaign - and also in her first government - Bachelet made several gestures in favor of the Communist Party and figures of the nascent Frente Amplio, leaving wounded members of her own Socialist Party along the way.
Just one of the many disastrous decisions she made - and with the acquiesence of the opposition parties. Maricones, todos.
So the current analysis is that Toha will lose against Kast or Matthei in the second round.
The three way split “right” still concerns me though and I would have thought Bachelet would be the ideal candidate to win against a split right in the second round vs. the less appealing (to the center) Toha.
Yeah, the refusal of the right-wing parties to get their shit together and form a proper coalition(in the way that the lefties always do) is incomprehensible.
But it may be that Bachelet is content to rest on her dubious laurels rather than undergo what will be a savage campaign.
Its also possible that faced with Bachelet, who as you say would be a more formidable opponent than Tohá, the rightwing parties would be compelled into joining forces, despite what they are saying now.
Still 9 months to go, a lot can happen in the meantime, but if Tohá resigns from government, which needs to happen quite soon if she intends to stand, we will know who the officialist candidate will be.
And just a couple of days later, Tohá has resigned from government, as a necessary precursor to a presidential candidacy.
But Bachelet is still silent regarding her intentions, which I suspect is a tactic to crystalize support and gain power within the fragmented blocks that make up the officialist parties. Whatever her faults, she is a very cunning political operator.
Update: So nothing’s been settled yet, or so I thought earlier today, but…
So she’s said “No”, but without endorsing Tohá either.
And in the same week that Bachelet announced that she wouldn’t stand, she scuttled off to New York to lobby her compinches for the UN Secretary-General position.
Given her previous poor UN showing, and the attitude of the present US government, she hasn’t much of a chance imho.
Why can’t she just live quietly on her huge for-life presidential pension, and administer her taxpayer-funded fundaciones?
Maybe she wants to be out of the country when a future rightwing government starts calling her to account for the many disasters she approved during her second presidential term.
